Would it be fair to claim that West Ham United would not have enjoyed the riches of the past few years under David Moyes' tutelage had Declan Rice not emerged from the academy?
Sure, Moyes would have been re-appointed back in December 2019. And yes, progress would have been made transfer-wise, stabilising an outfit equipped for success but failing to make it all work, like trying to place various puzzle pieces into the right positions to form a completed picture.
But Rice closed the door on his Irons journey with successive Player of the Season awards in his locker. Oh yes, and the Player of the Season award in the Europa Conference League, having played a talismanic part in securing silverware for his London outfit.
His departure stung, not least because he decided to join cross-city rivals in Arsenal, but it's hard to bewail too loudly, Rice catalysed a midfield and lifted it to glory.
Why West Ham hit the jackpot with Declan Rice
Even the most sanguine West Ham supporters would have resigned themselves to Rice's sale following the completion of the 2022/23 campaign.
No doubt the Hammers bosses canvassed offers of extension at the London Stadium but Rice felt his skill set worthy of a place at the forefront of the European game and thus Arsenal succeeded with a £105m move, making him (briefly) the most expensive footballer in British history.
Such an astronomical recoup makes it hard to argue West Ham didn't succeed with Rice, but his exploits as a United player would have cemented him in the club's hall of modern greats had he left for a pittance, with Jack Wilshere gushing back in 2021 that "physically he's a freak, and technically he can do anything that he wants."
He amassed 245 appearances for West Ham after graduating from the academy and became synonymous with the side's resurgence under Moyes, fuelling the team from the nucleus of the pitch and dazzling with his high-energy, all-embracing midfield approach.
He's the creme-de-la-creme, but West Ham thought they had an even bigger talent on their hands in the early days of Rice's career.
They thought so, but Reece Oxford proved to fall by the wayside on English shores.
Why Reece Oxford failed at West Ham
Oxford was one of the hottest prospects around after making his Premier League debut as a 16-year-old in the 2015/16 Premier League opener against Arsenal, with West Ham securing a stunning victory at the Emirates Stadium.
GK – Adrian
RB – James Tomkins
CB – Winston Reid
CB – Angelo Ogbonna
LB – Aaron Cresswell
DM – Reece Oxford
CM – Mark Noble
CM – Cheikou Kouyate
AM – Dimitri Payet
CF – Mauro Zarate
CF – Diafra Sakho
Speaking of his performance after the match, Irons gaffer Slaven Bilic was bewildered by his young talent, remarking: “The boy has got everything. Everything. Let’s be fair. Ozil, Cazorla, and Ramsey are world-class players. It’s not easy to minimize their game. He’s definitely going to make it if he progresses and keeps his feet on the ground.”
Oxford made six further Premier League appearances that year but has featured only once in the English top-flight since, completing a series of indifferent loan spells with Reading and Borussia Monchengladbach before attracting Augsburg's attention, embarking on a temporary move in 2018/19 before completing a permanent transfer with the German Bundesliga side for around £3m.
The former England U20 international has now amassed 80 appearances for the Fuggerstädter, which evens out at 13.3 features per campaign.
Reece Oxford's market value in 2024
Sadly, injuries and setbacks relating to long Covid have hindered a once-promising career, and while Oxford has enjoyed comparative success in Germany, notably starting 30 Bundesliga matches in 2021/22 as his outfit swerved the clamp of the drop zone, he's played just three times since the start of last season.
As such, the 25-year-old is currently valued at just £2m – according to Football Transfers' player valuation model, actually marking him with a price tag below Ben Johnson, who is valued at £4m.
Johnson plays his part in West Ham's system but he's probably one of Moyes' more expendable cogs, with the 24-year-old full-back starting just four Premier League games all season.
While Oxford's market price never shot up exponentially, he was expected to go to big things, having once actually been considered a bigger talent than Rice.
Indeed, according to a pensive Bilic, the chatter surrounding Oxford after his debut propelled him into a position not just as West Ham's brightest prospect but as one of the Premier League's most exciting prodigies in recent years. He had it all, the world at his feet.
“What helped him was that he was a bit under the radar,” Bilic said. “A couple of years before, when I’d come to West Ham, I couldn’t move around the place without hearing that Reece Oxford was going to be the next big thing.
“Reece made his debut at 16 and we beat Arsenal 2-0, you can imagine the hype. He had an entourage, he got injuries, maybe lost a bit of confidence and focus.
“Dec’s was a different story. He was able to come in without the same expectations. I remember being in Germany on pre-season and walking round the hotel and seeing him with his mum and dad. They’d come over to see him, I had a chat and they didn’t seem the type to want a lot of fuss. Things like that don’t do any harm to a young player.”
It's clear that in those early days, there was such a weight of expectation surrounding Oxford that Rice enjoyed the smoother road, plying his trade astutely and working his way toward the fore.
While West Ham's £3m sale looks to have been a decent deal in hindsight, it all could have been so different, with unthinkable success surely on the cards had Oxford linked with prodigious partner Rice in east London.
At least the club enjoyed the riches of one of these players, but for Oxford, the giddy heights envisaged way back when have petered out.
