It’s been a wild few days in the NFL MVP odds market, as Ravens QB Lamar Jackson and Bills QB Josh Allen staked their claim to the NFL’s top award with outstanding performances by each in Week 17. They’ve been going back and forth the last few weeks with the MVP odds swinging drastically and, after their latest displays, the odds shifted back toward Allen.
Then there’s the curious case of Eagles RB Saquon Barkley, who became the ninth running back in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 rushing yards on Sunday and could break the single-season rushing record in Week 18. He’s still lurking as well.
Here’s where things stand currently.
NFL MVP Odds: Josh Allen vs Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen: -300 (implied probability of 75%)Lamar Jackson: +225 (implied probability of 30.8%)
After an outstanding performance on Christmas Day where he accounted for three touchdowns, Jackson had moved down to +180 odds at DraftKings. But Allen, who was -240 coming into Sunday, countered with his own big performance in Week 17, accounting for three TDs and reestablishing himself as the strong favorite to win his first MVP.
Looking at statistics alone, Jackson has an advantage. He’s thrown for 3,955 yards, 39 TDs, and four interceptions while also rushing for 852 yards and 4 TDs. Allen has 3,731 passing yards, 28 TDs vs six interceptions, and 531 rushing yards and 12 rushing TDs.
Individual statistics, of course, aren’t the only metric voters consider. The Bills have two more wins than the Ravens and have clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC.
Voters may also determine Jackson has a better supporting cast than Allen, highlighted by running back Derrick Henry, who has rushed for over 1,700 yards this season. Allen's top teammate in terms of output is James Cook, who has just over 1,000 all-purpose yards.
Saquon Barkley MVP Odds
Speaking of running backs, Barkley is currently +1600 (5.9% implied probability) to win the award, tied with Bengals QB Joe Burrow at DraftKings. He’s currently 100 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson’s record of 2,105 rushing yards in a single season.
That said, the odds suggest he has little chance of winning MVP even if he does break Dickerson’s record. When Dickerson set the record, he did not win MVP.
At this point, the award feels like a two-man race between Jackson and Allen. The most interesting part is the Ravens need to win in Week 18 to secure the AFC North, while Allen and the Bills have nothing to play for with the Chiefs having already secured the No. 1 seed. That could lead to the Bills being cautious with Allen as they face the Patriots in Week 18.
The odds certainly suggest as much with the Bills set as just -2.5 point favorites. They would be much larger favorites if Allen was expected to play the entire game.
Still, oddsmakers believe Allen is in the driver’s seat despite what happens in Week 18. Keep an eye on this market, however, as the odds have shifted considerably and could move further as news emerges and the games are played.
